The Daily Belmore

opinions, links, and more…

Belmore Rankings: Week 14

Boo, Oklahoma, boo. I completely agree with what Tony Kornheiser just said on MNF, that the Big 12 should not be letting voters decide who should be in their title game.  The BCS should not be involved in any sort of tiebreaker in any conference. Any subjectivity should be left out when determining who is at the top of a conference, and the Big 12 just gave itself a giant black eye. And you know what? Obectively or subjectively, Texas is better than Oklahoma.  They beat them on a neutral field. Oklahoma beat Texas Tech at home, while Texas lost by six points on the road. The Big 12 title game, as well as the BCS in general, has just become an even bigger laughing stock than it had been in previous years. My top 10:

  1. Texas (11-1)
  2. Alabama (12-0)
  3. Oklahoma (11-1)
  4. Boise State (12-0)
  5. Florida (11-1)
  6. Utah (12-0)
  7. USC (10-1)
  8. Texas Tech (11-1)
  9. Ball State (11-0)
  10. Penn State (11-1)
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December 1, 2008 Posted by | Sports | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Belmore Rankings: Week 13

Texas Tech has lost, and order has been restored.  You may be asking why Texas is number one, and that’s simply because they have played the second toughest schedule in the country (behind Utah State who has lost most of their games). Losing one game by six points to a fellow top 10 team is pretty forgivable.  Here is the entire top 10:

  1. Texas (10-1)
  2. Alabama (11-0)
  3. Utah (12-0)
  4. Oklahoma (10-1)
  5. Florida (10-1)
  6. Boise State (11-0)
  7. Texas Tech (10-1)
  8. USC (9-1)
  9. Penn State (11-1)
  10. Georgia (9-2)

I am very curious to see how the next few weeks play out; there isn’t a lot of room for error anymore.  The only thing I would change about this season to date (other than every UW game) is to have Penn State still be undefeated.  It would have been nice to give ol’ Joe Pa a shot at the title.

November 23, 2008 Posted by | Sports | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Belmore Rankings: Week 11

Ready for a shocker?  I have Texas Tech at #4 and Texas at #1:

  1. Texas (9-1)
  2. Alabama (10-0)
  3. Florida (8-1)
  4. Texas Tech (10-0)
  5. Utah (10-0)
  6. Boise State (9-0)
  7. USC (8-1)
  8. Oklahoma (9-1)
  9. Georgia (8-2)
  10. Ohio State (8-2)

The reason I didn’t post my rankings last week is that Texas Tech was #5, with Texas still at #1.  Credit Texas with the ridiculous schedule to this point (or credit the Big 12, but you get my point).  Assuming both teams win out, I don’t see Texas Tech getting higher than Texas due to the schedules disparity (Tech played some cupcakes to start the season that are really hurting them in my system).  But the chances of them both winning out are not very high, and hopefully the playing field will help decide this snafu.

What I’m more interested in (due to having a week to digest the Texas/Texas Tech problem) is that two non-BCS teams are in the top 10.  In theory, they should both win out, keeping them high in the rankings.  *cough* Playoff! *cough*

Here are the top 6 conferences:

  1. Big 12
  2. Big East
  3. SEC
  4. Big Ten
  5. Mountain West
  6. ACC

November 10, 2008 Posted by | Sports | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Belmore Rankings: Week 9

Boise State and Penn State are climbing:

  1. Texas (8-0)
  2. Alabama (8-0)
  3. Boise State (7-0)
  4. Georgia (7-1)
  5. USC (6-1)
  6. Oklahoma (7-1)
  7. Florida (6-1)
  8. Oklahoma State (7-1)
  9. Penn State (9-0)
  10. Utah (8-0)

And I don’t care that Penn State is so low.  They have played a weak schedule so far, and while I don’t actually think Boise State is worthy of a #3 position, I don’t think Penn State is either.  That win over Oregon State sure looks good when you do a head to head comparison of PSU and USC, however.

It does appear that based on my rankings, if Texas and Alabama win out and their schedule doesn’t suddenly take a nosedive by the end of the season, they’ll be the top two.  I have no problem with that, as they have both looked mighty impressive so far.  This Texas-Oklahoma State game this weekend should be a good one, and will definitely solidify Texas’ position should they win.

Here are the top six conferences, same as last week:

  1. Big 12
  2. SEC
  3. Big Ten
  4. Big East
  5. ACC
  6. Mountain West

October 29, 2008 Posted by | Sports | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Belmore Rankings: Week 8

Things are starting to get interesting in the ol’ world of college football.  More teams are beating up on each other, and the picture of who the true top teams are is becoming clearer and clearer.  Behold, my top 10:

  1. Texas (7-0)
  2. Alabama (7-0)
  3. Oklahoma (6-1)
  4. Georgia (6-1)
  5. Oklahoma State (7-0)
  6. Ohio State (7-1)
  7. Boise State (6-0)
  8. USC (5-1)
  9. Florida (5-1)
  10. Utah (8-0)

Before everyone jumps all over the low USC ranking, remember: USC beat Ohio State.  That is considered a good loss for OSU.  USC lost to Oregon State.  That is a very bad loss (and the Beavers beating up on my Huskies, currently ranked #119, doesn’t make it look any better).  If USC is truly the better team (take out the first half of the Oregon State game, and they’ve played the best football in the nation, period), it will reflect in the ratings as the season goes on.  We’re just over halfway; there is still a lot of football to be played.

Now, when it comes to the top conferences, the Pac-10 is looking more and more pathetic.  They have lost ground from last week when I said they were slowly catching back up.  If Washington can beat Notre Dame, that will definitely help, but let’s not hold our breath:

  1. Big 12
  2. SEC
  3. Big Ten
  4. Big East
  5. ACC
  6. Mountain West

I’m only going to show the top 6 conferences from now on, as there are six BCS conferences, so that’s all that matters.  Oops, did I just say the Mountain West is more deserving of a BCS birth than the Pac-10?  I just might have.  Not like it matters, as I still think USC will make it’s way into the title game.

October 23, 2008 Posted by | Sports | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Belmore Rankings: Week 7

Vanderbilt lost to a bad team, Oklahoma lost to a good one, and Florida beat a good one, leaving us with this:

  1. Alabama
  2. Texas
  3. Oklahoma State
  4. Michigan State
  5. Boise State
  6. Wake Forest
  7. USC
  8. Oklahoma
  9. Florida
  10. Ohio State

The anomaly seem to be Michigan State and Wake Forest, but I have no qualms.  The whole methodology of my formula is taking care of business against other teams who are taking care of business, which they are both doing.  But, one loss can certainly have its toll, as Vanderbilt dropped from #2 to #18 in one week.  We shall see as the season goes on.  However, SEC vs. Big 12 seems about right, since they’re the two top conferences:

  1. Big 12
  2. SEC
  3. Big Ten
  4. ACC
  5. Big East
  6. Mountain West
  7. Pacific-10
  8. WAC
  9. Independent
  10. Mid-American
  11. Conference USA
  12. Sun Belt

The Pac-10 is slowly creeping up on the Mountain West, and we can only cross our fingers that the top 6 conferences are indeed the BCS conferences by the end of the year.  Otherwise, well, it will show how worthless the BCS really is.  Without a playoff, it is as good of a tool as we’re going to get, but that certainly does not mean it is better than a playoff.  It is, in fact, much worse.

October 13, 2008 Posted by | Sports | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Belmore Rankings: Week 15

Here’s how I see it after the final week of the regular season:

  1. LSU (11-2)
  2. Virginia Tech (11-2)
  3. Ohio State (11-1)
  4. Missouri (11-2)
  5. West Virginia (10-2)
  6. Oklahoma (11-2)
  7. Georgia (10-2)
  8. Kansas (11-1)
  9. Arizona State (10-2)
  10. Florida (9-3)
  11. Brigham Young (10-2)
  12. USC (10-2)
  13. Boston College (10-3)
  14. Hawaii (12-0)
  15. South Florida (9-3)
  16. Illinois (9-3)
  17. Clemson (9-3)
  18. UCF (10-3)
  19. Virginia (9-3)
  20. Texas (9-3)
  21. Tennessee (9-4)
  22. Boise State (10-2)
  23. Cincinnati (9-3)
  24. Connecticut (9-3)
  25. Wisconsin (9-3)

Not the consensus, and I don’t like that Missouri is ahead of Oklahoma (although, the point of this poll is to not heavily weigh one game, nor is it to factor in margin of victory, much to the dismay of poor Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops). I’ll see about some tweaks in the offseason, but all in all I think it did a pretty good job.

Now, if I ruled the lands of college football? I’d have a playoff with those top 8 (or 16 if you want to add an extra week) teams, leading to two semifinal games played at two of the BCS bowls, and then the championship game at another. The fourth bowl could be either a third place game (which would be tough on the fans for travel) or it could have it’s classic match-up using teams that did not make it to the playoffs. I don’t have all the specifics, I just don’t think it’s fair to have everything decided by computers (although I still think that seasons like this are exactly why the BCS was created…to add some hard numbers to the speculation showed by the voters).

Who played the toughest schedule this year? Shockingly, it was Washington (4-9, BR: #92). Their opponents had a collective .622 winning percentage, the highest by a full point in all of FBS schools.

The easiest schedule goes to Western Kentucky (7-5, BR: #77), leapfrogging Hawaii at the end of the year. Their opponents had a collective .271 winning percentage. That’s worse than Hawaii, who was penalized with two FCS schools that I calculated as 0% teams. Pretty weak, Western Kentucky.

December 2, 2007 Posted by | Sports | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Belmore Rankings: Week 9

Everyone keeps talking about parity when they mention all the upsets in college football this year. While I won’t disagree that there are not as many dominant teams are there used to be, I think another thing that should be discussed is the lower talent level of this year. Yes, we have our Mike Harts and our Tim Tebows, but if there was so much “parity”, wouldn’t there be 25-50 different “standout” players we were arguing over for the first round of the NFL? Instead only the frontrunners for the Heisman are in the conversation, and no one else ever gets talked about.

Maybe I’m wrong, I don’t know. Just an idea. Anyway, here are my top 5:

  1. LSU (7-1, BSOS Rank: #12)
  2. Ohio State (8-0, BSOS Rank: #100)
  3. Oregon (6-1, BSOS Rank: #33)
  4. Arizona State (7-0, BSOS Rank: #103)
  5. Boston College (7-0, BSOS Rank: #104)

Clearly ASU and BC had some help because they didn’t have a game this week (especially as the Sun Devils have yet to play Cal, USC, and Oregon), but all we really care about are those top two. I don’t know how the BCS will shake up, but LSU will be at least in the top 3 due to USF losing, so not bad. Maybe my formula will work itself out once all the games are played; who knows.

Here are the five toughest schedules to date:

  1. Washington (2-5, BR: #89)
  2. Notre Dame (1-7, BR: #108)
  3. Duke (1-6, BR: #107)
  4. Stanford (3-4, BR: #71)
  5. Auburn (5-3, BR: #26)

And the five weakest:

  1. Hawaii (7-0, BR: #64)
  2. Memphis (3-4, BR: #96)
  3. USC (6-1, BR: #40)
  4. Western Kentucky (4-3, BR: #74)
  5. Kansas (7-0, BR: #10)

Hawaii is not getting any help from their opponents. Not including FCS teams, their opponents have a collective winning percentage of 14.8%, the worst by far in the FBS. To put that in perspective? USC, third on that list, has an opponent’s winning percentage of almost double that, at 28.6%.

Meanwhile, the poor Huskies are stuck with the highest caliber of opponents, collectively winning 79.1% of their games. Rebuilding is a tough road…

October 21, 2007 Posted by | Sports | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Belmore Rankings: Week 6

After some data entering, number crunching, and formula adjustments, I give you my own patented college football rankings after five weeks of play. I’ll explain the flaws after the top 5:

  1. LSU (5-0, BSOS Rank: #39)
  2. Kentucky (5-0, BSOS Rank: #61)
  3. USC (4-0, BSOS Rank: #63)
  4. Oregon (4-1, BSOS Rank: #27)
  5. Nebraska (4-1, BSOS Rank: #30)

Now, there are still some obvious problems. Yes, I know numerous ranked teams lost yesterday, but that doesn’t equate to Kentucky being the number 2 team in the land. And Oregon just lost to California (who is #8 in my system), so why isn’t Cal higher? Formulas are a tricky thing. I’ll keep working on it this week and see if I can get a better one in place next week. The tweaks I made this week are still an improvement; remember, Rome wasn’t built in a day.

Now for the teams playing the toughest schedules:

  1. Akron (2-3, BR: #55)
  2. Auburn (3-2, BR: #14)
  3. Washington (2-3, BR: #57)
  4. Stanford (1-3, BR: #92)
  5. Minnesota (1-4, BR: #96)

And the weakest schedules:

  1. Kansas (4-0, BR: #70)
  2. Purdue (5-0, BR: #68)
  3. Hawaii (5-0, BR: #61)
  4. Connecticut (5-0, BR: #51)
  5. Cincinnati (5-0, BR: #45)

None of those five teams have played anyone that currently has a winning record.

There might be a few more college football related posts today, but after that I’ll get back to some topics that have a more widespread interest.

September 30, 2007 Posted by | Sports | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Belmore Rankings: Week 5

After yesterday’s games I have decided to fully unveil the Belmore Rankings. I’m still not sold on my formulas (there’s something afoot when there are so many undefeated teams are not in the top 25 while my (admittedly disappointing) Washington Huskies rank #22), but I’ll let it go another two weeks or so and tweak it from there if I need to. Here are my top 5 teams (BSOS stands for Belmore Strength of Schedule):

  1. LSU (4-0, BSOS Rank: #36)
  2. USC (3-0, BSOS Rank: #45)
  3. Oregon (4-0, BSOS Rank: #58)
  4. Nebraska (3-1, BSOS Rank: #34)
  5. Florida State (2-1, BSOS Rank: 31)

My big problem there is Florida State. They had a bye last week, so they didn’t have a chance to lose (my rankings may be objective based on a formula I’ve created, but that doesn’t mean I can’t be subjective when judging teams), and two of the three teams they have played won (with the other having a bye), so without doing anything they moved up a lot. I’m not too hot on Oregon or Nebraska either, but like I said, we’ll give it a few weeks to see if things even out more.

This is just a theory of mine to see if computers can really decide who is the best undefeated (or one- or two-loss, depending on the outcome of the season) team in college football. I’m not a big fan of the BCS, but I do like numbers and computations to find an “objective” top team. The reason I did full rankings is that after putting in all of the data for the top teams, I had to rank every team anyway, so I thought I’d share.

For those that are curious, here are the teams playing the toughest schedules (along with their BR, a.k.a. Belmore Ranking)

  1. Louisiana-Monroe (0-3, BR Rank: tied for #111)
  2. Tennessee (2-2, BR Rank: tied for #7)
  3. Arkansas (1-2, BR Rank: tied for #44)
  4. Mississippi (1-2, BR Rank: tied for #69)
  5. Florida International (0-4, BR Rank: tied for #111)

And the weakest schedules:

  1. Kansas (4-0, BR Rank: tied for #100)
  2. Penn State (3-1, BR Rank: tied for #92)
  3. Florida Atlantic (3-1, BR Rank: tied for #92)
  4. Baylor (3-1, BR Rank: tied for #92)
  5. Purdue (4-0, BR Rank: tied for #69)

Not a whole lot of good games next weekend, aside from California @ Oregon, so we’ll see if anything shakes up.

And don’t worry, I’ll have quite the post about UW later today.

September 23, 2007 Posted by | Sports | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment